Is it worth to invest in Citibank?

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Source: http://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2009/07/blog-post_11.html

2009年7月11日 星期六
花旗银行的投资价值是多少?

一位来自中国北京的人email和问我怎么看花旗银行(CITIGROUP)?我个人的意见如下:

花旗银行如果不是在之前筹集到约500亿资金,加上美国政府注入450亿美元,和担保它3000亿美元资产,花旗银行早就破产了!

关于花旗银行是否值得投资,我发现身边有很多人因花旗银行股价跌的超低而蠢蠢欲动,毕竟花旗银行曾经是全球资产最大的银行。可以用2.59美元买花旗银行,的确吸引了不少人。

但是我们要仔细想想以下几点:

1)花旗银行能否回到过去的股价,能8成足矣?
因为花旗银行已经分拆了一些资产,所以即使经济恢复,也不可能回到过去的盈余巅峰,因此除非炒作,或者将时间拉长10多20年,否则不大可能恢复。


2)花旗银行的赚钱能力?
就以花旗银行的业务来说,各项部门依旧亏损,还看不见好转的迹象。当然,我也相信总有好转的一天,只是在这之前,信贷违约率的增加会让花旗银行不断流血。而根据“放水造假”的“压力测试”结果,花旗银行只需要50亿美元的资金其实是骗人的,实际上内部流传是350亿美元,而非50亿美元,之所以对外公布50亿,那是因为以花旗银行的市值,根本承受不了350亿美元的风险敞口。

因为“压力测试”的标准和测试过程本质上不严谨,花旗银行实际上的损失恐怕超过350亿美元,请你们看一看目前花旗银行的市值,才142.8億美元,这潜在的亏损是它市值的多少倍啊?

如果依据Mark to Market的会计准则,花旗银行已经资不抵债,实际上是破产了!


3)花旗银行会破产清盘吗?
花旗银行会否破产,那是看美国政府的政策了!如果美国政府认为“Too Big To Fail”的政策会拖慢经济复苏的话,它也许会让花旗银行破产清盘,只是不会让它突然倒塌,而是有次序的破产。只是目前来看,美国政府还是走“Too Big To Fail”的政策,虽然FDIC不如此认为。


4)如果花旗银行不破产,那可投资吗?
很多人想投资花旗银行,就是认为美国政府不会让它破产,如此以目前2.59美元的股价买花旗银行,实在是太便宜了。

我建议你们看一看通用汽车的例子,通用在美国政府保护下破产重组,现重组完成,那么原本的股东手中的通用汽车股票值多少钱?

答案是:零蛋。

因为当破产重组完成后,新通用汽车的股权分别属于美国政府,加拿大政府,UAW以及债权人。至于原本的通用股东呢?

抱歉!原本的通用股东们,你们的生意已经失败了,现在你们的公司由这些新股东接管,你们的股票,不久会被破产法官宣布作废,变成废纸一张。(雖然週五股價大漲逾30%)

现在我们回到花旗银行,如果你相信花旗银行的未来亏损真的如“压力测试”般说的只有约50亿美元,那你应该去买花旗银行。实际上市场好像也不相信,否则为何花旗银行的股价没有大涨?
假如花旗银行的未来亏损真的超过350亿美元,那请看一看目前花旗银行142.8億美元的市值,一旦需要新的资金援救,动辄数百亿美元是普通不过的,以花旗银行的市值,一旦接受了这样庞大的救助金,原本的股东权益还会剩下多少,因为这些援助金一个不小心就可以将花旗银行整间买下来了!

最后的结果可能是,花旗银行得救了,但是原本的股东全部翘辨子了!就像通用汽车一样,公司老板换人了,原本的股东手中的股票全部变成废纸。

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Covering medical costs

Please buy Medical Insurances, It is important cos My Father kena STROKE on friday(10th July 2009). Luckily he buy hospital and surgical insurances 3 years ago when he is 63 years 6 months. He buy because my mom passed away because of cancer. My mom didn't have any coverage. The last entitlement year to buy is 64 years old. I think the medical fees busuk busuk pun mau RM 7k. He is still in Hospital Fatimah. Please pray for my father for speedy recovery.
By LAALITHA HUNT


Only 15% of Malaysians have some form of medical insurance according to a Bank Negara report

PRIVATE school teacher Peter Chin, who is in his late 30s, was not at all interested in purchasing medical insurance cover for himself as he was in the pink of health and exercised regularly.

However, his wife convinced him to obtain a medical card, which covers hospitalisation and surgical costs as well as a critical illness plan, which normally pays you a lump sum when you are diagnosed with a critical illness such as heart attack or stroke.

The following year, Chin was admitted to a private hospital when he suffered unbearable chest pains. It turned out that his arteries were blocked in four places and he was required to have heart surgery, which cost RM70,000.

He was truly grateful as his insurance company immediately paid for the surgery and bore the related hospital costs. He was also paid a hefty sum due to his critical illness.

In a way, Chin is lucky. Only 15% of Malaysians have some form of medical insurance, and 84% of those having medical insurance are below the age of 45, says a Bank Negara report.

General Insurance Association of Malaysia reported that medical insurance generated close to RM485mil in gross premiums in 2007, which represented only about 5% of the general insurance market.

According to Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd executive vice president and chief marketing officer Loke Kah Meng, many people feel safe in the knowledge that their employers provide medical benefits.

“However, the coverage may be subject to low benefit limits and will usually only be provided up to the ages of 55-60, after which one then retires. In addition, family members may also not be covered by the employer,” he points out.

However, Loke says growth in the medical insurance sector has been very encouraging, averaging at least 15% per annum over the last few years, with expectation of continued strong growth going forward.

“This is indicative of the greater awareness among individuals, employers and corporations of the need for medical insurance protection as an effective and affordable means of financing medical costs,” he says.

According to Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Bhd general manager Khalid Salleh, based on net income, one should set aside up to 15% for life and medical insurance coverage.

“To be cost-effective, one should buy ‘medical riders’, which could be added to one’s basic policy to provide an even more extensive insurance coverage at a small fee,” he adds.

Besides that, Khalid points out that the insured is also allowed tax deductions for medical insurance premiums by up to RM3,000 per annum from their personal taxable income.

Khalid advises that for small children as well as adults, a comprehensive healthcare protection should ideally have a hospitalisation and surgical insurance as well as a critical illness plan.

“For adults, there should be add-ons for disability income plan designed to cover one’s day-to-day expenses in the event one is unable to work due to an accident or illness,” he says.

Khalid adds that besides sufficient coverage for ordinary admissions, one should minimally be covered against the 36 critical illnesses.

“Even when a child is admitted for suspected dengue at an average private hospital and after conducting the routine diagnostics checks, it can set one back RM2,000 to RM3,000. Major surgeries can run into hundreds of thousands,” he notes.

Meanwhile, MyFP Services Sdn Bhd financial planner and managing director Robert Foo says one should assess one’s situation and needs when considering to purchase medical insurance.

“If you have enough wealth, then there may not be a need for any insurance. I mean, how much health insurance does Bill Gates need anyway. This is just an extreme example but you get my point,” he says.

Foo argues that if one is financially independent, they would be able to afford their own medical bills.

“But for the majority of people, it is good to have some health insurance, but it should be considered on a case-to-case basis,” Foo says.

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Is it a U, V or W recovery?

“ABC ... XYZ. Now I know my ABC, would you come and play with me?” This ABC infant song is probably something that most of us can relate to?

My wife claims to have learned her ABC in such ways, and by watching the popular kids’ programme – The Sesame Street.

Recently, three letters – U, V, W – have been widely used to describe the state of various economies and their prospects going forward.

It is not so much for what these letters stand for, but what their shapes resemble.

Let’s start with V. When a recession is referred to having a V-shaped recovery, that means it is generally shortlived and a quick rebounce is expected without complications.

So like V, markets fall continuously but when it hits the bottom, makes a sharp turnabout and heads back up. This does not, however, mean that the recession is not impactful. It just means that the recovery is fast and straight-forward.

A few recent examples would be the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98 and the SARS scare in 2003. In the former, high interest rates and collapsed local currencies caused many Asian economies to go into rapid decline.

Some even sought rescue packages from international bodies. Yet the region enjoyed a spectacular recovery in 1998. Similarly, SARS also had a significant impact on the economy. Moreover it brought on widespread fear among people over their health and their lives. Once again, when the worst had passed, the recovery was rapid and without doubt, spectacular too.

Unfortunately it is generally believed that this current round of recession will not experience a V-shaped recovery. That bring us to the next possibility.

The U-shaped recovery. The difference between U and V is that there is a relatively longer “bottom time” as the shape implies.

Hence the possibility of economies undergoing a longer period of no growth, or slow or negative growth. How long this bottom time is will depend on how fast the economies adjust to its environment.

This could be a likely outcome for us today. The bottom-time will depend on how fast economies de-leverage in areas such as credit comsumption in the United States, and also on how fast the economies re-leverage i.e. viable businesses and banks re-starting their lending activities which may spur economic activities.

In the meantime, government spending may tentatively replace the contracted consumer and corporate spending.

The risk here, however, is the possibility of W shaped recovery instead, with its double dips. In recent months, there seems to be some sort of recovery and greenshoots in select economies. While it is acknowledged that these are early signs and significant weaknesses remain, they are nonetheless positive signals.

The concern is that weaknesses such as unemployment, falling asset prices, contracting demands, etc, can still result in further economic contraction, resulting in the withering of these precious greenshoots.

Let me use an analogy. Recently, my son came under the weather and caught a cold. After a course of medication for three days, he seemed to be on the path to full recovery. We were relieved. On day four he sputtered a cough, and by day six he had lost his voice and had a raspy full blown cough!

It’s been another week and he’s his playful healthy self once again. This is a good example of a W-shaped recovery.

Let’s hope the global recession is simply undergoing a U shaped recovery, where we are already seeing those tentative signs of recovery after a prolonged period of no/negative growth.

If it was a W shaped recovery, then it means that the recent positives may be overweighed by negatives to come.

U, V or W, economies will recover, definitely. For those who have missed the market rally recently, there is still likely a second chance.

Since a V-shaped recovery is unlikely given the systemic flaws in many markets, the possible U or W shaped recovery means that opportunities may still be available. Just don’t wait till the skies are clear before investing, as stock markets will rise before the real economies rebound.

As my son learns his ABC song, I’m re-learning my UVW. I guess when we all get to XYZ, we know that we can then all go out to play!

Tay is senior vice-president and senior head of UOB’s personal financial services division.

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Najib's 11 gifts

None of the 11 goodies benefit me, KANASAI.


KUALA LUMPUR: Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak dished out 11 “goodies” in conjunction with his 100th day as Prime Minister yesterday.

The measures were both people-friendly and, in some cases, solutions to longstanding grievances.

The “goodies” are:

> a 20% discount for motorists who pay toll 80 times a month via Smart Tag or Touch ’n Go from Sept 1;

> some 44,000 low-cost houses in Kuala Lumpur to be sold to existing tenants;

> a 50% discount on licences for petty traders in the Federal Territory;

> a RM150mil allocation for entrepreneurs, and another RM15mil specifically for young Indian businessmen;

> another 3,000 taxi permits to be approved soon;

> expediting birth registrations in Sabah and Sarawak;

> clearing the backlog of citizenship applications;

> improving access to basic utilities in rural areas;

> reducing the cost to obtain a B2 motorcycle licence (under 250cc);

> setting up a new trust fund, Amanah Saham 1Malaysia, for investors aged above 18; and

> various measures to be announced soon to curb crime and corruption

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Najib - 101 days

評論:鄭丁賢‧第101天
2009-07-12 18:43
納吉應是甜蜜的過了他的第100天。

民間社會的反應,比預期中好。65%的支持率,會讓很多國家的領導人羨慕不已。

我不會置疑65%這個數字,默迪卡調查中心,以及其主持人依布拉欣蘇菲安,信得過。

重點在於這個數字的背後景象和意義。

和同期上台的他國領袖比較,納吉的情況有些不同。

不管是李明博、馬英九,或是薩科奇、奧巴馬,這些領袖百日內的聲望下跌,原因之一是他們上台前的聲望很高。

這種期望,由選舉帶動,因勝選而推波助瀾。總統制下的全民普選,也助長領袖的個人聲勢。

人民對自己投票決定的對象,期望很高;即使不是支持者,也受到大環境的影響,對中選的領袖,抱著姑且一試的期望心理。

譬如李明博,中選時聲望幾乎高到不切實際的水平;等到他上台,期望和表現就很難成正比。

一旦實際表現未符合原先的高度期望,失望的氛圍就快速籠罩,聲望也直線下滑。

當韓國、台灣、法國、美國和英國人民對他們的新領袖怨聲載道時,冷眼旁觀,或許不是這些領袖表現很糟,而是當初人民的期望太高,是其中一個原因。

相對的,納吉上台,是黨內的決定,並不是因為選舉而來,所以也沒有選情的哄抬。

他上任時,是個人形象和國家面對最多問題的時刻。個人方面,坊間有各種流言蜚語,外在方面,補選接連失利、霹靂州事件沸騰、經濟衰退,各種難題一起湧來。

當時的情況,對納吉是最惡劣的時候,也是在谷底的時候。

和股市一樣,既然已經到了谷底,惟一的去向,就是往上反彈。

而納吉上任所塑造的親民和中庸形象,以及他的幾項開明政策,一反眾人過去想像中屬於保守、封閉和強硬的納吉。

當民眾的印象改觀,原先的反對和保留態度也隨之改變,從而帶動了納吉人氣往人彈升。

不過,政治人物不能陶醉在掌聲裡;太多掌聲,往往掩蓋了後頭更多的其它聲音。

前首相阿都拉的問題之一,就在其中。

第101天起,人民的期望升高,眼睛更明亮;要維持65%滿意度,會很困難,除非再接再厲,做得更好。

星洲日報/馬荷加尼‧作者:鄭丁賢‧2009.07.12

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