WORLD stocks traded on a more cautionary mood last week as investors took pause to reassess the risks and returns for equities after the recent rally.
Stock prices have risen sharply since early March as investors rushed back into the market on hopes that the global economy is turning a corner. Given the big gains over such a short period of time, it is not a bad sign for markets to consolidate for a while.
Encouraging numbers on the US housing market and consumer spending had spurred the rally. However, the latest clutch of economic data was more sobering. US retail sales for April slipped 0.4%, the second consecutive month of decline. Another report showed rising number of home foreclosures while new claims for unemployment benefits jumped higher.
The weaker-than-expected numbers revived concerns that the widely heralded recovery may not materialise just yet. They also gave investors an excuse to take some money off the table. Key Asian bellwether indices ended the week in the red. Wall Street too saw some profit-taking with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and broader-based Standard & Poor's 500 index losing ground.
We suspect economic data in the coming months will continue to be mixed. The recovery is unlikely to be smooth sailing all the way given the severity and breadth of the recession.
US unemployment is at the highest level in more than a quarter century — and is expected to rise further. Mounting job losses coupled with the ongoing household deleveraging process will weigh on any recovery in consumer spending.
Underlining the grim reality, Sony, one of the world's largest makers of consumer electronics predicted wider losses this year — after reporting its first annual loss in 14 years for the last financial year ended March. The company has not reported consecutive years of losses in more than 50 years.
Earlier, Toyota Motor, the world's largest carmaker, had also warned of more losses in the current year as production fell to multi-year lows.
On the positive note, last week's selling pressure was comparatively mild. In fact, investors took the string of weaker-than-expected numbers in stride.
This may be attributed, at least in part, to the still substantial liquidity sitting on the sidelines. It is generally believed that the swiftness of the recent rally has left many investors out of play. Hence, many are just waiting for the next pullback to pour more money into stocks. If so, this could give the rally legs. But the ride will, more likely than not, be bumpy.
Portfolio review
Our model portfolio did not fare so well last week. Our basket of 18 stocks dropped 3.1%, worse than the KLCI's 1.22% decline. However, including our large cash reserves (for which no interest is imputed), the total portfolio value fell by a lesser 2.1% to RM453,459.
Despite the latest setback, our model portfolio's total value and returns still represent a significant achievement compared with our initial capital of just RM160,000. We started the model portfolio on March 3, 2003.
Our total profits are very substantial at RM293,459, of which RM206,221 have already been realised earlier. This represents a hefty return of 183.4% compared with our capital of RM160,000. We continue to outperform the KLCI significantly, which is up by 56.8% in the same period.
Most of the stocks in our basket fell last week, save for DiGi, Ireka and Selangor Properties while shares for Tanjong plc and HELP International traded unchanged.
Smaller cap stocks, which chalked up the strongest gains in the previous week, succumbed to heavy profit-taking. For instance, Pantech Group, whose shares surged 33.9% in the preceding week, fell 8.9% last week. Masteel dropped 7.2%, giving back some of its 20.5% gain from the previous week. Other big losers were Muhibbah Engineering (down 9.4%), Dufu Technology (down 9.6%) and Bursa Malaysia (down 6.2%).
Despite the broad market decline, interest on the local bourse remains robust. Daily trading volume averaged at nearly 2.8 billion shares valued at over RM1.9 billion. We are leaving our portfolio unchanged and will continue to monitor the market for fresh developments and opportunities.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
Stock prices have risen sharply since early March as investors rushed back into the market on hopes that the global economy is turning a corner. Given the big gains over such a short period of time, it is not a bad sign for markets to consolidate for a while.
Encouraging numbers on the US housing market and consumer spending had spurred the rally. However, the latest clutch of economic data was more sobering. US retail sales for April slipped 0.4%, the second consecutive month of decline. Another report showed rising number of home foreclosures while new claims for unemployment benefits jumped higher.
The weaker-than-expected numbers revived concerns that the widely heralded recovery may not materialise just yet. They also gave investors an excuse to take some money off the table. Key Asian bellwether indices ended the week in the red. Wall Street too saw some profit-taking with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and broader-based Standard & Poor's 500 index losing ground.
We suspect economic data in the coming months will continue to be mixed. The recovery is unlikely to be smooth sailing all the way given the severity and breadth of the recession.
US unemployment is at the highest level in more than a quarter century — and is expected to rise further. Mounting job losses coupled with the ongoing household deleveraging process will weigh on any recovery in consumer spending.
Underlining the grim reality, Sony, one of the world's largest makers of consumer electronics predicted wider losses this year — after reporting its first annual loss in 14 years for the last financial year ended March. The company has not reported consecutive years of losses in more than 50 years.
Earlier, Toyota Motor, the world's largest carmaker, had also warned of more losses in the current year as production fell to multi-year lows.
On the positive note, last week's selling pressure was comparatively mild. In fact, investors took the string of weaker-than-expected numbers in stride.
This may be attributed, at least in part, to the still substantial liquidity sitting on the sidelines. It is generally believed that the swiftness of the recent rally has left many investors out of play. Hence, many are just waiting for the next pullback to pour more money into stocks. If so, this could give the rally legs. But the ride will, more likely than not, be bumpy.
Portfolio review
Our model portfolio did not fare so well last week. Our basket of 18 stocks dropped 3.1%, worse than the KLCI's 1.22% decline. However, including our large cash reserves (for which no interest is imputed), the total portfolio value fell by a lesser 2.1% to RM453,459.
Despite the latest setback, our model portfolio's total value and returns still represent a significant achievement compared with our initial capital of just RM160,000. We started the model portfolio on March 3, 2003.
Our total profits are very substantial at RM293,459, of which RM206,221 have already been realised earlier. This represents a hefty return of 183.4% compared with our capital of RM160,000. We continue to outperform the KLCI significantly, which is up by 56.8% in the same period.
Most of the stocks in our basket fell last week, save for DiGi, Ireka and Selangor Properties while shares for Tanjong plc and HELP International traded unchanged.
Smaller cap stocks, which chalked up the strongest gains in the previous week, succumbed to heavy profit-taking. For instance, Pantech Group, whose shares surged 33.9% in the preceding week, fell 8.9% last week. Masteel dropped 7.2%, giving back some of its 20.5% gain from the previous week. Other big losers were Muhibbah Engineering (down 9.4%), Dufu Technology (down 9.6%) and Bursa Malaysia (down 6.2%).
Despite the broad market decline, interest on the local bourse remains robust. Daily trading volume averaged at nearly 2.8 billion shares valued at over RM1.9 billion. We are leaving our portfolio unchanged and will continue to monitor the market for fresh developments and opportunities.
Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.