Bukit Gantang: PAS to thump Umno by 3,000
Ong Kian Ming Apr 6, 09 12:38pm
Of the three by-elections that will take place tomorrow, perhaps the one that has the greatest significance for new Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is the Bukit Gantang by-election.
MCPX
Whether one interprets the eventual outcome as a vote of confidence for or against Najib’s premiership or the way he managed to engineer the takeover of the Perak state government, the results will be seen as a referendum on Najib, one way or the other.
As such, if my prediction of a Pakatan victory by approximately 3,000 votes were to materialise, then it would not be a very positive start to Najib’s premiership especially if this were to be accompanied by a loss in the Bukit Selambau by-election as well.
This result will be driven by a small increase in the level of Malay support for BN (compared to 2008) but will be more than overwhelmed by a slightly larger drop in its level of non-Malay support.
BN will get a small post-Umno general assembly boost that compensates for the sympathy factor that is associated with the PAS candidate, ousted Perak menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin. But the perception that the ‘takeover’ of the Perak state government was ‘illegal’ and ‘unjust’ will hurt the ruling coalition more among the non-Malay voters.
Malay support for BN barely above 50%
Reports leading up to the Bukit Gantang by-election seem to indicate that PAS is only confident of securing 40% of the Malay vote. But the previous three general elections have shown that the BN has never managed to secure anywhere close to 60% of the Malay vote.
This table below shows my estimates of Malay and non-Malay support for BN in Bukit Gantang in the past three general elections.
Malay support for BN was barely above 50% in 1999 because of the treatment of Anwar Ibrahim at the hands of Mahathir and the ‘reformasi’ movement arising from that. Malay support for the BN remained low even in 2004 because this seat was ‘given’ by Umno to Gerakan in return for the predominantly Chinese party letting PPP president M Kayveas to contest in its Taiping parliamentary seat.
Many Malay voters in Bukit Gantang opted to vote for the PAS candidate instead of the Gerakan candidate, Tan Lian Hoe, who is the current MP for Grik. In 2008, when this seat was ‘returned’ to Umno, the Malay support for BN increased slightly to 53% but this is very far from the 60% Malay support for BN that some are projecting for this by-election.
The reason why PAS managed to win this seat in 2008 was because of the almost precipitous drop in the non-Malay support for the BN in this seat, where non-Malays comprise 36% of the voting population. BN only managed to win 35% of votes from the non-Malays which ultimately delivered this seat to the PAS candidate by a majority of 1,566 votes.
The question of interest then is whether the non-Malay support for BN will increase, decrease or stay the same in the upcoming by-election, by how much and for what reasons?
Perak power grab vs Nizar’s ‘derhaka’
For every by-election, there is a slate of issues which the BN as well as the opposition will campaign on. The Bukit Gantang by-election is no different. By now, the issues of this campaign should be apparent to most who are following this by-election with some interest.
As in all by-elections in Malaysia, some of these messages will be ‘tailored’ to the audience which a politician or a party is trying to reach out to.
For example, the BN would not harp on the fact that the Zambry Abd Kadir-led state government will be more pro-Malay to the non-Malays in Bukit Gantang and Pakatan would not attack the lack of ‘representativeness’ of Zamby’s state government to a Malay audience.
It is easier to make a judgement call as to how the non-Malay voters will vote in this by-election. A larger percentage of non-Malays would feel strongly about BN’s takeover of the Perak state government given that many of them were promised permanent land titles by the Pakatan state government and the fact that DAP was seen as holding considerably power within this state government.
Coupled with the fact that Nizar was and is extremely popular among the non-Malays in Perak, it would not be too much of a stretch to predict in a drop in the level of non-Malay support for the BN in Bukit Gantang. I make a conservative estimate that the non-Malay support for the BN here will fall by 5% from 35% in 2008 to 30% in 2009.
It is much harder to make predict which way the Malay vote will swing. There will certainly be some sympathy among the Malay voters for Nizar but perhaps less so compared to the non-Malay voters.
There will be some Malay voters who are not exactly enamoured with Najib as the new prime minister but there are probably enough Malay swing voters who are willing to give Najib the benefit of the doubt as PM.
Coupled with the resources and aggressive campaigning tactics that are being used by BN to attack Nizar and the ‘Malay-ness’ of his state administration, I estimate that the Malay support for BN will increase slightly from 53% in 2008 to 54% in 2009.
The impact of Ismail as a local candidate probably will not be very significant when compared to the other campaign issues.
In 2008, even when Umno ran a ‘parachute’ candidate from Kuala Lumpur in the person of Azim Zabidi, who is the Umno treasurer as well as the former Bukit Bintang Umno chief, the ‘cost’ to the BN in terms of split voting (by comparing votes cast in the state seats) was only 816 votes, or 2% of the total votes cast.
In other words, the upside associated with running a local candidate for the BN is likely to be limited.
Out-of-towners likely to be pro-opposition
As in all by-elections, turning out voters who are more likely to support one side or the other will be crucial in determining the eventual margin of victory. For example, had more outstation and younger Chinese voters turned out for the recent Kuala Terengganu by-election, the eventual margin of victory for PAS would have been greater than the 2,600 majority by which it won that seat.
The table below shows the level of BN support by the average age of a ‘saluran’ or polling stream. The trends are clear – BN’s support is highest among the above 55 age group.
For the salurans which are Malay ‘dominant’ (above 70%), the declining trend of BN support by average age group is the clearest – those below 35 years of age show a 45% level of support for the BN, those from 35 to 55 show a 49.9% level of support and those above 55 show a 53.8% level of support.
The trends for the Malay ‘majority’ salurans (those where the percentage of Malays is between 50% to 70%) and those non-Malay ‘majority’ salurans (those where the percentage of Malays is below 50%) are not as clear. The level of BN support is still the highest among those above 55 years but is now lowest among those from 35 to 55.
What this table tells us is that the turnout battle is likely to be won by Pakatan if it manages to mobilise enough voters below the age of 55 and who are not working or living in the Bukit Gantang constituency to return home to vote, especially among the non-Malay voters.
While the fact that Bukit Gantang is within a three-hour drive from Kuala Lumpur and from Penang and only a 90-minute drive from Ipoh will not make it too difficult for outstation voters to return to vote, the fact that polling day is a Tuesday, a working day, may depress turnout among this group of voters.
My conservative estimate is that voters turnout for this by-election will not change significantly from the 72.4% in the 2008 general election. A higher turnout should help the opposition this time while a lower turnout should help BN.
Final prediction
Assuming that turnout remains at the same level as in 2008, assuming that the level of Malay support for BN increases slightly to 54% while that among non-Malays fall to 30% and assuming that independent candidate, Kamarul Ramizu, only manages to poll less than 500 votes (the independent Indian candidate in 2008 polled 872 votes), my estimates show the PAS candidate, Nizar, winning this seat by approximately 3,000 votes - double the majority won by the previous PAS candidate in 2008.
A higher majority for PAS - above the 1,566 majority it got last year - would be bad news for Najib as that would probably mean that Pakatan managed to attract a greater number of Malay voters.
BN could probably claim some sort of moral victory if it manages to reduce Pakatan’s margin to below 1,500 votes.
Ong Kian Ming Apr 6, 09 12:38pm
Of the three by-elections that will take place tomorrow, perhaps the one that has the greatest significance for new Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is the Bukit Gantang by-election.
MCPX
Whether one interprets the eventual outcome as a vote of confidence for or against Najib’s premiership or the way he managed to engineer the takeover of the Perak state government, the results will be seen as a referendum on Najib, one way or the other.
As such, if my prediction of a Pakatan victory by approximately 3,000 votes were to materialise, then it would not be a very positive start to Najib’s premiership especially if this were to be accompanied by a loss in the Bukit Selambau by-election as well.
This result will be driven by a small increase in the level of Malay support for BN (compared to 2008) but will be more than overwhelmed by a slightly larger drop in its level of non-Malay support.
BN will get a small post-Umno general assembly boost that compensates for the sympathy factor that is associated with the PAS candidate, ousted Perak menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin. But the perception that the ‘takeover’ of the Perak state government was ‘illegal’ and ‘unjust’ will hurt the ruling coalition more among the non-Malay voters.
Malay support for BN barely above 50%
Reports leading up to the Bukit Gantang by-election seem to indicate that PAS is only confident of securing 40% of the Malay vote. But the previous three general elections have shown that the BN has never managed to secure anywhere close to 60% of the Malay vote.
This table below shows my estimates of Malay and non-Malay support for BN in Bukit Gantang in the past three general elections.
Malay support for BN was barely above 50% in 1999 because of the treatment of Anwar Ibrahim at the hands of Mahathir and the ‘reformasi’ movement arising from that. Malay support for the BN remained low even in 2004 because this seat was ‘given’ by Umno to Gerakan in return for the predominantly Chinese party letting PPP president M Kayveas to contest in its Taiping parliamentary seat.
Many Malay voters in Bukit Gantang opted to vote for the PAS candidate instead of the Gerakan candidate, Tan Lian Hoe, who is the current MP for Grik. In 2008, when this seat was ‘returned’ to Umno, the Malay support for BN increased slightly to 53% but this is very far from the 60% Malay support for BN that some are projecting for this by-election.
The reason why PAS managed to win this seat in 2008 was because of the almost precipitous drop in the non-Malay support for the BN in this seat, where non-Malays comprise 36% of the voting population. BN only managed to win 35% of votes from the non-Malays which ultimately delivered this seat to the PAS candidate by a majority of 1,566 votes.
The question of interest then is whether the non-Malay support for BN will increase, decrease or stay the same in the upcoming by-election, by how much and for what reasons?
Perak power grab vs Nizar’s ‘derhaka’
For every by-election, there is a slate of issues which the BN as well as the opposition will campaign on. The Bukit Gantang by-election is no different. By now, the issues of this campaign should be apparent to most who are following this by-election with some interest.
As in all by-elections in Malaysia, some of these messages will be ‘tailored’ to the audience which a politician or a party is trying to reach out to.
For example, the BN would not harp on the fact that the Zambry Abd Kadir-led state government will be more pro-Malay to the non-Malays in Bukit Gantang and Pakatan would not attack the lack of ‘representativeness’ of Zamby’s state government to a Malay audience.
It is easier to make a judgement call as to how the non-Malay voters will vote in this by-election. A larger percentage of non-Malays would feel strongly about BN’s takeover of the Perak state government given that many of them were promised permanent land titles by the Pakatan state government and the fact that DAP was seen as holding considerably power within this state government.
Coupled with the fact that Nizar was and is extremely popular among the non-Malays in Perak, it would not be too much of a stretch to predict in a drop in the level of non-Malay support for the BN in Bukit Gantang. I make a conservative estimate that the non-Malay support for the BN here will fall by 5% from 35% in 2008 to 30% in 2009.
It is much harder to make predict which way the Malay vote will swing. There will certainly be some sympathy among the Malay voters for Nizar but perhaps less so compared to the non-Malay voters.
There will be some Malay voters who are not exactly enamoured with Najib as the new prime minister but there are probably enough Malay swing voters who are willing to give Najib the benefit of the doubt as PM.
Coupled with the resources and aggressive campaigning tactics that are being used by BN to attack Nizar and the ‘Malay-ness’ of his state administration, I estimate that the Malay support for BN will increase slightly from 53% in 2008 to 54% in 2009.
The impact of Ismail as a local candidate probably will not be very significant when compared to the other campaign issues.
In 2008, even when Umno ran a ‘parachute’ candidate from Kuala Lumpur in the person of Azim Zabidi, who is the Umno treasurer as well as the former Bukit Bintang Umno chief, the ‘cost’ to the BN in terms of split voting (by comparing votes cast in the state seats) was only 816 votes, or 2% of the total votes cast.
In other words, the upside associated with running a local candidate for the BN is likely to be limited.
Out-of-towners likely to be pro-opposition
As in all by-elections, turning out voters who are more likely to support one side or the other will be crucial in determining the eventual margin of victory. For example, had more outstation and younger Chinese voters turned out for the recent Kuala Terengganu by-election, the eventual margin of victory for PAS would have been greater than the 2,600 majority by which it won that seat.
The table below shows the level of BN support by the average age of a ‘saluran’ or polling stream. The trends are clear – BN’s support is highest among the above 55 age group.
For the salurans which are Malay ‘dominant’ (above 70%), the declining trend of BN support by average age group is the clearest – those below 35 years of age show a 45% level of support for the BN, those from 35 to 55 show a 49.9% level of support and those above 55 show a 53.8% level of support.
The trends for the Malay ‘majority’ salurans (those where the percentage of Malays is between 50% to 70%) and those non-Malay ‘majority’ salurans (those where the percentage of Malays is below 50%) are not as clear. The level of BN support is still the highest among those above 55 years but is now lowest among those from 35 to 55.
What this table tells us is that the turnout battle is likely to be won by Pakatan if it manages to mobilise enough voters below the age of 55 and who are not working or living in the Bukit Gantang constituency to return home to vote, especially among the non-Malay voters.
While the fact that Bukit Gantang is within a three-hour drive from Kuala Lumpur and from Penang and only a 90-minute drive from Ipoh will not make it too difficult for outstation voters to return to vote, the fact that polling day is a Tuesday, a working day, may depress turnout among this group of voters.
My conservative estimate is that voters turnout for this by-election will not change significantly from the 72.4% in the 2008 general election. A higher turnout should help the opposition this time while a lower turnout should help BN.
Final prediction
Assuming that turnout remains at the same level as in 2008, assuming that the level of Malay support for BN increases slightly to 54% while that among non-Malays fall to 30% and assuming that independent candidate, Kamarul Ramizu, only manages to poll less than 500 votes (the independent Indian candidate in 2008 polled 872 votes), my estimates show the PAS candidate, Nizar, winning this seat by approximately 3,000 votes - double the majority won by the previous PAS candidate in 2008.
A higher majority for PAS - above the 1,566 majority it got last year - would be bad news for Najib as that would probably mean that Pakatan managed to attract a greater number of Malay voters.
BN could probably claim some sort of moral victory if it manages to reduce Pakatan’s margin to below 1,500 votes.