Jul 4, 09
10:46am
It is natural that in the ebb and flow of politics, there will be good months and bad months for politicians and their political parties. Sometimes, the bad months have to do with 'accidental' events such as the revelation of a political scandal involving a party leader or member.
At other times, the bad months occur because one's political opponent has announced a policy change which is greeted positively by the public. More often than not, bad months are simply caused by one's own political miscalculations and blunders. The last explanation aptly sums up PAS' bad month in June.
One would have though that with the conclusion of the PAS Muktamar in early June that any further discussion of unity talks with Umno would be conveniently ignored for politically expedient and strategic reasons. Those in favour of unity talks, most notably Nasharuddin Mat Isa, had won the deputy president contest.
Party leader Abdul Hadi Awang had already made his point that PKR and the DAP should not take PAS for granted.
And yet, some leaders within PAS refuse to let the 'specter' of unity talks die. After a meeting involving the top Pakatan leaders reaffirming the commitment of the individual component parties to the opposition coalition, PAS Youth has once again inflamed the political atmosphere within Pakatan by inviting Umno Youth to have an 'intellectual discourse'.
Why is it a political blunder on the part of PAS to continue to insist on having these talks with Umno?
PAS has little to gain from talks
The first and most important reason is that there is little political mileage that PAS can gain from having these talks.
There may be some who go misty-eyed at the prospect of Malays uniting under a government led by Umno and PAS but politics is mostly a zero-sum game that involves winning and losing seats in an election.
Any electoral gains made by PAS come almost exclusively at Umno's expense and vice-versa. Having any talks with Umno at any level will not entice a larger number of Umno members to suddenly vote for PAS over Umno. Nor will it cause many Malay fence-sitters to suddenly choose PAS over Umno just because PAS is willing to engage with Umno.
Indeed, one can make a strong case that Umno is more likely to make electoral gains by talking to PAS rather than the other way round since some Malay voters may interpret this move as PAS somehow 'legitimising' Umno.
In addition, PAS' sudden urge to 'get into bed' with Umno may dissuade non-Malay voters from voting for PAS just when many of them are just getting used to this notion.
The view by some that these talks are just that –'talks' – and should therefore not be seen to have greater political or electoral significance is plainly wrong. Much of politics is about taking a position in the public realm whether it is through policy announcements or through political moves.
Even if PAS leaders have the best of intentions in engaging with Umno, one can be sure that many non-Malay voters would not interpret it as such.
This is especially true of those non-Malay voters who voted for PAS in the 2008 general election and would be construed as a breach of their trust on the part of PAS.
If PAS Youth had really wanted to debate Umno Youth over the role and significance of Islam within the two parties, it would have been easy enough to arrange for a debate featuring the Youth leaders from both parties.
After all, it did not require the formation of a planning committee from both sides to arrange the debate between Umno's Khairy Jamaluddin and PAS' Husam Musa that took place last December.
The fact that this 'intellectual discourse' was proposed so soon after the rejection of unity talks by the Pakatan leadership only increases the perception that some quarters within PAS are not willing to let go of this issue.
This proposal makes even less political sense given that it comes just a few weeks before the by-election in Manek Urai which features a contest between PAS and Umno. Are these PAS leaders oblivious to the possibility that this move may shift more Malay votes to Umno than to PAS or are they so confident of a PAS victory that this consideration does not even come into play?
Diabolical plan to oust the Erdogans?
The second reason as to why this is a political miscalculation on the part of PAS is because it risks creating a serious shift within the leadership of PAS and perhaps all the way down to the rank and file members.
The two main proponents of these unity talks – Abdul Hadi and Nasharuddin – could have closed ranks after the PAS Muktamar to give some semblance of a united party. But by continuing to push for these unity talks in one form or another, they are risking the ire of PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat, who has been firmly against these unity talks as well as those delegates who voted for Husam, who has also stood firm in his opposition to these talks.
Abdul Hadi and Nasharuddin may have the intention of 'killing off' their political rivals, the so-called 'Erdogan' group, but there must surely be better ways of doing it than consorting with your political enemy, alienating one of your most respected and long serving leaders as well as risking open 'civil war' within your own party.
What makes this even more surprising is that this sort of open 'warfare' is exactly the kind of approach which PAS has historically tried to avoid.
That there are competing factions within a party should not surprise anyone. But that some leaders within a party would risk the political standing and reputation of the party for the purpose of 'killing off' one's political enemies within the party seems borderline irrational.
For example, it has been well-documented that Teng Chang Khim, the current speaker in the Selangor legislature, has had very public disagreements with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang. But Teng's loyalties have remained with the DAP. He has not ventured to reach out to MCA or Gerakan to gain political leverage over his political adversaries within DAP.
But this is exactly what the leaders of PAS who are in favour of unity talks are doing in their attempts to sideline and marginalise the 'Erdogans' in reaching out to Umno. It is akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The third reason as to why these talks are a political blunder is that it risks creating distrust within Pakatan Rakyat during a time which unity among the opposition is crucial if it is to achieve its goal of winning power at the federal level in the next general election.
Whenever the issue of unity talks surfaces (or re-surfaces), DAP and PKR leaders are put on the defensive and have to fend of questions regarding the viability of Pakatan as a coalition. Not only would these incessant questions raise the level of mistrust among DAP and PKR leaders and members against PAS, it also distracts the opposition coalition from taking on BN.
This is exactly what has happened in the month of June. While Najib has been slowly gaining momentum by announcing bold economic policies, Pakatan has been left in the dust trying to defend its long-term viability as a coalition.
But why the political miscalculation?
If these unity talks are such a gross political miscalculation on the part of PAS, how can we explain the almost obsessive need of some PAS leaders to continue to pursue these talks, in some form or fashion?
One possible reason could be political naiveté on the part of some PAS leaders. These leaders may erroneously think that it is in the best interest of the party to have some sort of cooperation with Umno. They may have been cleverly manipulated or fooled into thinking that the best chances of implementing an 'Islamic state' lies with cooperating with Umno rather than with the DAP and PKR.
They may have set aside political rationality and the fact that if BN regains the seats it lost to the opposition in 2008, that PAS will no longer be needed or have as much bargaining power. They may have allowed their personal preferences of working with certain Umno leaders to trump the more political sensible option of working with DAP and PKR leaders which may not share the same language or background as some PAS leaders.
But one cannot discount a second and more sinister explanation for this incessant pursuit of unity talks, which is that some elements within PAS may have been given certain 'incentives' to get rid of the 'Erdogans' in PAS who are in favour of working closely with DAP and PKR and pull PAS closer to Umno to sabotage Pakatan's viability as an opposition coalition, even if this risks open conflict within PAS.
I do not put forth this explanation lightly. But the abandonment of political rationality as exhibited by not letting go of these unity talks forces me to highlight this as a possible explanation.
All the more when the latest proposal to have unity talks between PAS Youth and Umno Youth seem to discount the urgency of winning Manek Urai. I am not the only person who has speculated that a loss for PAS in Manek Urai would be a big blow to the 'Erodgan' faction in PAS, which is led by two Kelantan 'heavyweights' namely Tok Guru Nik Aziz and Husam Musa.
It is altogether possible that the well has been poisoned sufficiently within PAS that open conflict between its leaders become almost inevitable. This would obviously affect the support for PAS but would also have ripple effects on its coalition partners in Pakatan. If this happens, PAS leaders who are pushing for these unity talks have only themselves to blame for shooting themselves in the foot.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in Political Science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail.com.
10:46am
It is natural that in the ebb and flow of politics, there will be good months and bad months for politicians and their political parties. Sometimes, the bad months have to do with 'accidental' events such as the revelation of a political scandal involving a party leader or member.
At other times, the bad months occur because one's political opponent has announced a policy change which is greeted positively by the public. More often than not, bad months are simply caused by one's own political miscalculations and blunders. The last explanation aptly sums up PAS' bad month in June.
One would have though that with the conclusion of the PAS Muktamar in early June that any further discussion of unity talks with Umno would be conveniently ignored for politically expedient and strategic reasons. Those in favour of unity talks, most notably Nasharuddin Mat Isa, had won the deputy president contest.
Party leader Abdul Hadi Awang had already made his point that PKR and the DAP should not take PAS for granted.
And yet, some leaders within PAS refuse to let the 'specter' of unity talks die. After a meeting involving the top Pakatan leaders reaffirming the commitment of the individual component parties to the opposition coalition, PAS Youth has once again inflamed the political atmosphere within Pakatan by inviting Umno Youth to have an 'intellectual discourse'.
Why is it a political blunder on the part of PAS to continue to insist on having these talks with Umno?
PAS has little to gain from talks
The first and most important reason is that there is little political mileage that PAS can gain from having these talks.
There may be some who go misty-eyed at the prospect of Malays uniting under a government led by Umno and PAS but politics is mostly a zero-sum game that involves winning and losing seats in an election.
Any electoral gains made by PAS come almost exclusively at Umno's expense and vice-versa. Having any talks with Umno at any level will not entice a larger number of Umno members to suddenly vote for PAS over Umno. Nor will it cause many Malay fence-sitters to suddenly choose PAS over Umno just because PAS is willing to engage with Umno.
Indeed, one can make a strong case that Umno is more likely to make electoral gains by talking to PAS rather than the other way round since some Malay voters may interpret this move as PAS somehow 'legitimising' Umno.
In addition, PAS' sudden urge to 'get into bed' with Umno may dissuade non-Malay voters from voting for PAS just when many of them are just getting used to this notion.
The view by some that these talks are just that –'talks' – and should therefore not be seen to have greater political or electoral significance is plainly wrong. Much of politics is about taking a position in the public realm whether it is through policy announcements or through political moves.
Even if PAS leaders have the best of intentions in engaging with Umno, one can be sure that many non-Malay voters would not interpret it as such.
This is especially true of those non-Malay voters who voted for PAS in the 2008 general election and would be construed as a breach of their trust on the part of PAS.
If PAS Youth had really wanted to debate Umno Youth over the role and significance of Islam within the two parties, it would have been easy enough to arrange for a debate featuring the Youth leaders from both parties.
After all, it did not require the formation of a planning committee from both sides to arrange the debate between Umno's Khairy Jamaluddin and PAS' Husam Musa that took place last December.
The fact that this 'intellectual discourse' was proposed so soon after the rejection of unity talks by the Pakatan leadership only increases the perception that some quarters within PAS are not willing to let go of this issue.
This proposal makes even less political sense given that it comes just a few weeks before the by-election in Manek Urai which features a contest between PAS and Umno. Are these PAS leaders oblivious to the possibility that this move may shift more Malay votes to Umno than to PAS or are they so confident of a PAS victory that this consideration does not even come into play?
Diabolical plan to oust the Erdogans?
The second reason as to why this is a political miscalculation on the part of PAS is because it risks creating a serious shift within the leadership of PAS and perhaps all the way down to the rank and file members.
The two main proponents of these unity talks – Abdul Hadi and Nasharuddin – could have closed ranks after the PAS Muktamar to give some semblance of a united party. But by continuing to push for these unity talks in one form or another, they are risking the ire of PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat, who has been firmly against these unity talks as well as those delegates who voted for Husam, who has also stood firm in his opposition to these talks.
Abdul Hadi and Nasharuddin may have the intention of 'killing off' their political rivals, the so-called 'Erdogan' group, but there must surely be better ways of doing it than consorting with your political enemy, alienating one of your most respected and long serving leaders as well as risking open 'civil war' within your own party.
What makes this even more surprising is that this sort of open 'warfare' is exactly the kind of approach which PAS has historically tried to avoid.
That there are competing factions within a party should not surprise anyone. But that some leaders within a party would risk the political standing and reputation of the party for the purpose of 'killing off' one's political enemies within the party seems borderline irrational.
For example, it has been well-documented that Teng Chang Khim, the current speaker in the Selangor legislature, has had very public disagreements with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang. But Teng's loyalties have remained with the DAP. He has not ventured to reach out to MCA or Gerakan to gain political leverage over his political adversaries within DAP.
But this is exactly what the leaders of PAS who are in favour of unity talks are doing in their attempts to sideline and marginalise the 'Erdogans' in reaching out to Umno. It is akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The third reason as to why these talks are a political blunder is that it risks creating distrust within Pakatan Rakyat during a time which unity among the opposition is crucial if it is to achieve its goal of winning power at the federal level in the next general election.
Whenever the issue of unity talks surfaces (or re-surfaces), DAP and PKR leaders are put on the defensive and have to fend of questions regarding the viability of Pakatan as a coalition. Not only would these incessant questions raise the level of mistrust among DAP and PKR leaders and members against PAS, it also distracts the opposition coalition from taking on BN.
This is exactly what has happened in the month of June. While Najib has been slowly gaining momentum by announcing bold economic policies, Pakatan has been left in the dust trying to defend its long-term viability as a coalition.
But why the political miscalculation?
If these unity talks are such a gross political miscalculation on the part of PAS, how can we explain the almost obsessive need of some PAS leaders to continue to pursue these talks, in some form or fashion?
One possible reason could be political naiveté on the part of some PAS leaders. These leaders may erroneously think that it is in the best interest of the party to have some sort of cooperation with Umno. They may have been cleverly manipulated or fooled into thinking that the best chances of implementing an 'Islamic state' lies with cooperating with Umno rather than with the DAP and PKR.
They may have set aside political rationality and the fact that if BN regains the seats it lost to the opposition in 2008, that PAS will no longer be needed or have as much bargaining power. They may have allowed their personal preferences of working with certain Umno leaders to trump the more political sensible option of working with DAP and PKR leaders which may not share the same language or background as some PAS leaders.
But one cannot discount a second and more sinister explanation for this incessant pursuit of unity talks, which is that some elements within PAS may have been given certain 'incentives' to get rid of the 'Erdogans' in PAS who are in favour of working closely with DAP and PKR and pull PAS closer to Umno to sabotage Pakatan's viability as an opposition coalition, even if this risks open conflict within PAS.
I do not put forth this explanation lightly. But the abandonment of political rationality as exhibited by not letting go of these unity talks forces me to highlight this as a possible explanation.
All the more when the latest proposal to have unity talks between PAS Youth and Umno Youth seem to discount the urgency of winning Manek Urai. I am not the only person who has speculated that a loss for PAS in Manek Urai would be a big blow to the 'Erodgan' faction in PAS, which is led by two Kelantan 'heavyweights' namely Tok Guru Nik Aziz and Husam Musa.
It is altogether possible that the well has been poisoned sufficiently within PAS that open conflict between its leaders become almost inevitable. This would obviously affect the support for PAS but would also have ripple effects on its coalition partners in Pakatan. If this happens, PAS leaders who are pushing for these unity talks have only themselves to blame for shooting themselves in the foot.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in Political Science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail.com.