NTPM buy by OSK

NTPM reported a set of impressive FY09 results, with revenue and earnings rising 17.1% and 39.6% y-o-y attributed to higher sales volume and product selling prices. Full-year EBIT margin widened marginally by 2.6%-pts y-o-y due to lower raw material costs. We are revising upwards our FY09 and FY10 earnings forecast by 16.5%-23% to RM53.5m and RM63.8m respectively. Maintain BUY at a higher TP of RM0.54, tagged at 10x CY10 EPS.

Above expectations. As expected, NTPM remain unscathed despite the slower consumer spending, reporting impressive FY09 revenue and net profit of RM358.6m (+17.1% FY09 y-o-y) and RM46.2m (+39.6% FY09 y-o-y) respectively, surpassing our full-year forecast by 10.5%. This was attributed to the higher sales volume and selling prices (+ ~15% y-o-y for tissue and personal care products). Tissues, for which sales have jumped by 17%, contributed 86% of total sales whereas sales of personal care products grew 18.1% y-o-y. On a q-o-q basis, revenue and net profit also grew 3.9% and 22.1% respectively on higher sales volume.

Revised earnings upwards. We revise upwards our FY09 and FY10 forecast by 16.5%- 23% to RM53.5m and RM63.8m respectively. Accordingly, our TP has risen to RM0.54 from RM0.425 previously, pegged at 10x CY10 EPS. Daily average trading volume has doubled since the company declared a bonus issue in April.